Section 2: How Are Volcanic Eruptions Predicted?

Volcanic Eruptions

Prediction of volcanic eruption is an interdisciplinary scientific and engineering approach to natural catastrophic event forecasting.

The first is simply by visual observations.

●        Volcanoes may form a big bulge on its side. Increased smoke and minor lava eruptions are also signs that a large eruption may be about to occur.

●        Analyzing the amounts of gas being released can be helpful in predicting eruptions, as well as using temperature sensors to monitor temperature inside of the volcano. An increased temperature occurs before the start of an volcanic eruption.

How Are Volcanoes being Analysed?

●        the principle of inflection points in trends states that with unknown rates of change, a point in time is reached at which the volcanic system becomes unstable and likely will erupt;

●        the principle of coinciding change states that one monitored parameter alone may not yield significant symptoms to diagnose an imminent eruption.

●        the principle of known behavior  treats a volcano as a medical patient, assuming that responses to changes in the underground and can become better known by understanding its past eruptive characteristics;

●        the principle of unexpected behavior treats volcanoes like the public as inherently inconsistent systems which will lead to unexpected eruptions.

●        the principle of symptom-based short-term forecast as with all the other principles is similar to an epidemiological diagnosis, whereby forecasts are based on symptoms and patient history. 
Done by:Justin Lo(26) ,2/2